Saturday, February 24, 2007
A Brilliant Strategy?
Watching the Clinton/Obama/Geffen BS being tossed around -- with John Edwards in the background -- I can't help but wonder whether the Democrats have finally gotten smart, and are playing an amazing chess game against the Republicans which will cut them off at the knees at the exact moment they can do nothing about it -- right before the first primaries of 2008.
First off, any politician with a brain must realize one important thing: No matter how liberal American politics seem to be swinging, there's no way in hell the majority of voters are ready to give supreme power to a Woman or a Black Man. While we've had female and black presidents in many fictional accounts, and while it's far past time for either group to take power, in the world of RealPolitick, it isn't going to happen.
But... Clinton and Obama, as red-state bait, are the perfect early candidates to push to the forefront. And, as Senators, they have great fundraising power but, also, the ability to later transfer that money to someone else.
I don't want to give anything away here, but I suspect that there's some deeper strategy at work. Phase One: Pit Clinton and Obama against each other, let the right wing go nuts and shoot their wad trying to destroy them both. Phase Two: John Edwards, as failed Vice Presidential Candidate of 2004 suddenly rides into the breach as the untouchable. He pops into the field free and clear of the Clinton/Obama "war" that is going to be engineered by the rightwing. The Media touts him as the front runner for about three months.
And then, long post-Oscar win, long after denying wanting to run, long after redeeming his public image, Al Gore is drafted a month or two before the first primary. Reluctantly, he agrees -- and the rightwing has no ammunition against him, no valid argument, because they've been concentrating on the wrong target.
While Clinton and Obama have been playing the public face of the campaign, Gore has been waging a private campaign, via An Inconvenient Truth. Because, honestly, if the face he presents in that documentary had been the personna he'd run in 2000, his SNL Monologue would have been the truth, not a fantasy. In much the same way that Bob Dole became "cool" after the fact by just being himself on the talk show circuit after he lost, Gore has done the same, but without the pretense of running for office.
Much like Jimmy "Who?" Carter came out of nowhere in 1976 to defeat Gerald Ford, I think that Al Gore is going to come back in 2008. By then, it will make sense. By then, it will feel like "The Return of the King". And, by then, the Republicans will have spent whatever political capital they still have trying to slam Clinton and Obama.
Also, they'll have commmitted to an inferior candidate by then. McCain? Giuliani?
No chance in hell for either of them.
And then Gore and... someone suddenly tosses their hats into the ring. Maybe Gore Clinton, maybe Gore Obama, maybe Gore someone else. But the resurrection of an elder statesman who stayed out of the muck of 2007 while building public good will is an undefeatable possibility.
No matter how much the Republicans try to fark with the results in Ohio and Florida.
My very early prediction: Gore/Obama '08 for the win.
First off, any politician with a brain must realize one important thing: No matter how liberal American politics seem to be swinging, there's no way in hell the majority of voters are ready to give supreme power to a Woman or a Black Man. While we've had female and black presidents in many fictional accounts, and while it's far past time for either group to take power, in the world of RealPolitick, it isn't going to happen.
But... Clinton and Obama, as red-state bait, are the perfect early candidates to push to the forefront. And, as Senators, they have great fundraising power but, also, the ability to later transfer that money to someone else.
I don't want to give anything away here, but I suspect that there's some deeper strategy at work. Phase One: Pit Clinton and Obama against each other, let the right wing go nuts and shoot their wad trying to destroy them both. Phase Two: John Edwards, as failed Vice Presidential Candidate of 2004 suddenly rides into the breach as the untouchable. He pops into the field free and clear of the Clinton/Obama "war" that is going to be engineered by the rightwing. The Media touts him as the front runner for about three months.
And then, long post-Oscar win, long after denying wanting to run, long after redeeming his public image, Al Gore is drafted a month or two before the first primary. Reluctantly, he agrees -- and the rightwing has no ammunition against him, no valid argument, because they've been concentrating on the wrong target.
While Clinton and Obama have been playing the public face of the campaign, Gore has been waging a private campaign, via An Inconvenient Truth. Because, honestly, if the face he presents in that documentary had been the personna he'd run in 2000, his SNL Monologue would have been the truth, not a fantasy. In much the same way that Bob Dole became "cool" after the fact by just being himself on the talk show circuit after he lost, Gore has done the same, but without the pretense of running for office.
Much like Jimmy "Who?" Carter came out of nowhere in 1976 to defeat Gerald Ford, I think that Al Gore is going to come back in 2008. By then, it will make sense. By then, it will feel like "The Return of the King". And, by then, the Republicans will have spent whatever political capital they still have trying to slam Clinton and Obama.
Also, they'll have commmitted to an inferior candidate by then. McCain? Giuliani?
No chance in hell for either of them.
And then Gore and... someone suddenly tosses their hats into the ring. Maybe Gore Clinton, maybe Gore Obama, maybe Gore someone else. But the resurrection of an elder statesman who stayed out of the muck of 2007 while building public good will is an undefeatable possibility.
No matter how much the Republicans try to fark with the results in Ohio and Florida.
My very early prediction: Gore/Obama '08 for the win.
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